SDA - Drug Hoarding and 'Prisoner's Dilemma'

What is Prisoner's Dilemma ?

The prisoner's dilemma is only one of many illustrative examples of the logical reasoning and complex decisions involved in game theory. The prisoner's dilemma takes the form of a situation or game where two people must separately make decisions that will have consequences not only for their own self, but also for each other. When stuck in the situation or when playing the game, people confront a dilemma concerning their decisions, because when motivated solely by self-interest, they face more severe consequences than when motivated by group interests, as illustrated below. In order to make the best choice, each player would have to know what the other will do, but the structure of prisoner's dilemma prohibits players from having such knowledge, unless the situation or game is repeated. The prisoner's dilemma also is generally characterized by its lack of a single optimal strategy and the reliance of both parties on each other to achieve more favorable results.

Drug Hoarding Example: Understanding the Rash Urge to Stockpile Antibiotics

Dilemmas often arise when people feel vulnerable. A case in point is the situation regarding the drug Ciprofloxacin, which some are stockpiling more to combat anxiety than to ward off anthrax.

The benefit of these purchases is a feeling of greater personal security, but one social cost is that Cipro may be in short supply if and when it's needed in large quantities. Another social cost is the increased bacterial resistance to the antibiotic that is likely to result from its widespread use.

This is a classic case of The Prisoner's Dilemma.

If we refrain from buying our own supplies of Cipro, there will be more available in any emergency and the bacteria that constitute our common environment will not have as many tutorials to help them learn how to outwit the antibiotics.

Alas, this is not to say that buying Cipro in anticipation of a possible emergency never makes sense, especially if one believes that the conditions of the prisoner's dilemma simply do not apply or that the public health system will not be up to the job in an emergency.

The best way public health people can minimize hoarding is to repeatedly stress that there is not yet such an emergency. And short of an unpredictable and improbable scientific breakthrough by a scientist in the employ of terrorists, the risk from anthrax is tiny.

Another way to limit private stockpiling is for authorities, preferably scientists rather than politicians, to clearly proclaim that penicillin and doxycycline are also effective in combatting anthrax and that there is no shortage of these drugs. Finally, if and when much more Cipro is deemed necessary, government officials can always break the drug's patent, as Canada has done prematurely, and go to generic versions of the drug.

I reinforce the writer's viewpoint that the bottom line is that private stockpiling of antibiotics makes no sense for most people. Nevertheless, for the relatively few who feel especially vulnerable — because of their psychology, physical location, or occupation — buying the drugs is not an irrational way to increase their feeling of security (as long as they refrain from taking them without a very good reason to suspect exposure).

The results and after-effects of such a scenario are eagerly awaited which might lead to another form of dilemma.

Reference: http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/